The French Business Confederation (Medef), in partnership with MKG Consulting, commissioned a Tourism Foresight Study, published in October 2025. This document proposes a strategic vision for French tourism up to 2035-2040, with a dual objective: to consolidate the sector's economic weight while accelerating its ecological and social transformation. According to the specialized press, this work is becoming a key reference for structuring dialogue between the government, local authorities, and businesses.
Summary
A quantified diagnosis: a major economic pillar
The study reiterates that tourism remains a key sector of the French economy. In 2024, tourism revenue is estimated at €254.7 billion, representing 7.5% of GDP. The sector employs approximately 2 million people directly and indirectly, nearly 93,800 more jobs than in 2019. Tourism investments reached €18.6 billion in 2022, in addition to €22.5 billion in investments in transport infrastructure.
France welcomed 100 million international tourists in 2024, a 26% increase compared to 2019. Associated international spending is estimated at €71.3 billion. This growth confirms the country's role as a major global destination, while also highlighting that expansion is concentrated in specific areas and sectors.
A study structured around four main themes
MKG Consulting structured the report around four complementary components: a benchmark of French performance compared to other European countries; an analysis of tourism usage and consumption along the value chain; an inventory of regulatory barriers hindering competitiveness; and a corporate social and environmental responsibility approach integrating climate, social, and territorial issues. This methodology serves as the basis for the recommendations proposed for the period 2035-2040.
Regulation; social; sustainability: three areas of reform
The study summary highlights three major sets of proposals. On the regulatory side, these include reducing tax disparities between tourist accommodations; making the tax exemption for tips permanent; easing certain urban planning rules when projects support regional development; harmonizing Low Emission Zone schemes; and advocating for better representation of France in international tourism bodies.
On the social front, the report recommends better recognition of tourism professions at the national level; adapting training programs to the needs of seasonal workers; securing the use of fixed-term contracts for specific purposes; encouraging the creation of housing dedicated to seasonal workers; and strengthening access to vocational training to combat job insecurity. The study emphasizes that tourism represents between 6 and 7% of private-sector salaried employment in France, with significant regional disparities.
Finally, the “sustainability” block proposes to favour the renovation of existing buildings rather than new construction; to improve the tools for collecting environmental data; to finance research and development for a competitive French sustainable fuels sector; to create sectoral labels for sustainable tourism; and to adapt the tourism offer to the development plans of local authorities.
Territories under tension: coastline; mountains; rural areas
The study highlights the concentration of supply and demand in certain areas. The coastline accounts for 40% of commercial accommodation capacity on just 4% of the land, representing 336,700 jobs and an estimated economic impact of over €24 billion. In the mountains, the economy represents €1.8 billion in annual revenue, with 35.9 million hotel nights expected in winter 2024; however, the summer season remains a minority of the resorts' revenue.
The report encourages the development of intermodal hubs in coastal areas; the streamlining of procedures for projects with a positive environmental impact; the revival of school ski trips and nature camps; the diversification of year-round activities in the mountains; and coordinated outreach programs to mitigate seasonal fluctuations. More broadly, it calls for better integration of tourism strategies with land-use plans and the needs of rural areas.
Accommodation: aging stock and growth in short-term rentals
Regarding commercial accommodation, the growth in hotel supply remained limited between 2003 and 2024, reflecting an aging infrastructure and investment difficulties. The study highlights the cost of compliance, the complexity of the procedures, and a lack of awareness of available support programs. It recommends simplifying access to land, establishing regional one-stop shops to expedite projects, and facilitating the development of tourist accommodation in high-demand areas.
Conversely, alternative accommodations are experiencing strong growth. In 2024, 854.1 million overnight stays in short-term rentals were recorded in the European Union via major platforms, an increase of 18.8% compared to 2023. For France, the study proposes measuring the pressure from furnished tourist accommodations, making data more accessible through open data, and regulating automated access systems by favoring more regulated forms of accommodation.
Mobility: rail; road; plane; coach; cruise
Regarding mobility, the report notes that the car remains the dominant mode of transport for tourist travel in France. Rail travel is growing but remains concentrated on certain lines, while air travel is primarily used for international connections. The study recommends investing in rail as a sustainable alternative; improving service to underserved areas; continuing to open the rail sector to competition; and opening bookings earlier to meet the expectations of international travelers.
For air transport, the document proposes a gradual phasing out of the solidarity tax on airline tickets; a cautious implementation of new border control measures; and an acceleration of the development of sustainable fuels through investment plans and public-private partnerships. Coach and car rental are also presented as important links in tourist mobility, to be recognized and supported in the energy transition. Finally, the cruise sector is the subject of recommendations concerning the modernization of terminals; the structuring of river and sea routes; and the installation of greener energy solutions.
Key takeaways
TheTourism Prospective Study confirms the economic weight of tourism; with 254.7 billion euros in benefits in 2024; 7.5% of GDP and approximately 2 million direct and indirect jobs.
It highlights a strong dynamic of international visitor numbers; with 100 million foreign tourists in 2024; but also marked territorial imbalances between coast; mountains; large metropolitan areas and rural areas.
The report structures its recommendations around three cross-cutting levers: simplifying and streamlining regulations; strengthening the attractiveness and quality of employment; accelerating the ecological and energy transition of the sector.
He emphasizes the importance of mobility; accommodation; digital technology and data to guide tourism policies; and calls for better cooperation between the State; local authorities; businesses and local stakeholders.
Update
Article written and verified based on theTourism Prospective Study published by Medef and MKG Consulting in October 2025.
Sources
https://www.mkg-consulting.com
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