Boeing estimates that services for commercial aviation will represent $4.9 trillion between 2026 and 2045. The manufacturer also predicts that the sector will need to recruit and train more than 2.4 million pilots, technicians and cabin crew during this period.
These figures come from three forward-looking studies published by Boeing: the Commercial Services Market Outlook 2026-2045, the Pilot and Technician Outlook 2026-2045 and the Commercial Market Outlook 2026-2045.
According to the specialized press, Air Journal reported these projections on July 19, 2026. However, they should be presented for what they are: forecasts made by Boeing based on its own fleet, traffic, and aircraft utilization models. They do not guarantee that the projected figures will actually be achieved.
Summary
The $4.9 trillion announced by Boeing corresponds to a cumulative market
The figure of $4.9 trillion does not correspond to the annual value of the aeronautical services market in 2045. It represents the cumulative demand estimated by Boeing over the twenty years between 2026 and 2045.
The scope covered includes aircraft maintenance, repair, overhaul and modification, spare parts, supply chain, training, professional services and digital solutions used for maintenance and flight operations.
Boeing therefore includes in this projection a large part of the activities necessary to operate an aircraft throughout its life cycle, from its entry into a fleet to its modernization or its withdrawal from service.
Global air traffic could double by 2045
The forecasts for services are partly based on the central scenario of Commercial Market Outlook . The manufacturer anticipates average passenger traffic growth of 4% per year between 2026 and 2045, which would lead to a doubling of global traffic over the period.
Boeing also estimates that the global commercial fleet will increase by nearly 80% to exceed 50,000 aircraft by 2045. Airlines and cargo operators would need approximately 44,000 new aircraft over the next twenty years.
According to the manufacturer, half of these deliveries would be used to replace previous-generation aircraft. The other half would contribute to increasing available capacity.
These projections do not automatically mean that all destinations will benefit from new routes or a uniform increase in service. Capacity decisions will remain linked to local demand, route profitability, operating costs, infrastructure, and regulatory constraints.
Boeing forecasts 2.425 million new professionals
The Pilot and Technician Outlook 2026 estimates that 2,425,000 new professionals will be needed for global commercial aviation by 2045.
This estimate includes 674,000 pilots, 728,000 maintenance technicians and 1,023,000 cabin crew members.
Boeing estimates that two-thirds of this demand will be related to replacing professionals leaving the sector, particularly those retiring. The remaining third will support the growth of the commercial fleet.
The term "new professionals" therefore does not only refer to additional jobs. It also encompasses recruitment intended to replace people who will cease their activity during the next twenty years.
Forecasts limited to a portion of the aviation sector
The scope of the staffing needs report covers commercial passenger and cargo aviation. Boeing bases its calculations on a fleet forecast for commercial aircraft with more than 30 seats.
Business aviation and civil helicopters are excluded. Therefore, the published figures do not represent all sectors of the global aerospace industry.
The model takes into account, in particular, fleet growth and renewal, aircraft usage, staff departures and regional differences in crew composition.
Boeing also specifies that the results may vary from one edition to the next depending on regulations, crew productivity, and the types of aircraft operated. The 2026 scenario does not foresee a transition to single-pilot commercial operations.
Maintenance and pressure parts
The report on services identifies several constraints already present in commercial aviation: production delays, availability of engines and aircraft, tensions on spare parts and lack of skilled labor.
When deliveries are delayed, companies must keep certain aircraft longer. This extended operating time can increase the need for maintenance, repairs, and modifications.
Boeing also believes that certified used parts, known in the industry as Used Serviceable Material, could play a more significant role in operators' supply strategies.
The manufacturer is finally integrating repair, recycling, reuse of components and end-of-life management of aircraft among the activities likely to develop.
Over 90% of the fleet could be connected by 2045
Boeing predicts that more than 90% of the global fleet will be equipped with connected digital capabilities by 2045.
This evolution should promote the development of services based on the collection and use of data, particularly for predictive maintenance, operations analysis and decision support.
The report also cites cloud computing, automation, artificial intelligence, and analytics tools among the technologies that can change fleet management.
This is not an estimate of the number of jobs created by artificial intelligence or digital services. Boeing presents them as components of the expected transformation of the services market.
The training program will need to absorb more than one million cabin crew members
With 1,023,000 anticipated recruitments, cabin crew represent the largest category in the Pilot and Technician Outlook 2026.
Boeing attributes crossing the million mark to increased fleet productivity and a higher average seat density in aircraft.
For training, the manufacturer highlights skills assessment-based systems, known by the acronym CBTA, as well as digital, virtual or mixed reality learning tools.
These technologies are presented as ways to improve practical training and professional assessment. However, their actual deployment will depend on companies, training organizations, and certification authorities.
Eurasia, North America and China account for the largest volumes
In the regional classification used by Boeing, Eurasia comes out on top with 571,000 new professionals and a demand for services estimated at $1.185 trillion until 2045.
North America accounts for 438,000 new professionals and $995 billion in services. China has 425,000 professionals and $875 billion.
Southeast Asia accounts for 258,000 new hires and $425 billion in services. The Middle East represents 236,000 new professionals and $475 billion. For Africa, Boeing anticipates 75,000 professionals and a cumulative market of $140 billion.
These amounts correspond to the geographical categories defined by Boeing. They do not constitute announced public budgets or investments already committed by companies in each region.
What tourism professionals can actually deduce from this
For tourism stakeholders, these reports primarily provide an indication of the growth scenario chosen by one of the two main global manufacturers of commercial aircraft.
Boeing is working on the assumption of double passenger traffic, a fleet exceeding 50,000 aircraft and a large market for maintenance, parts, training and digital services.
However, the realization of this scenario will depend on the sector's ability to produce and deliver aircraft, to have parts and engines available, to train enough professionals and to finance fleet development.
For travel agencies, tour operators, and destinations, the key issue remains the actual air capacity offered for sale. The $4.9 trillion announced by Boeing does not reflect either the number of future tourists or the revenue expected by travel companies.
These forecasts nevertheless show that the projected growth in air transport will require sustained investment far beyond the purchase of aircraft. Maintenance, training, and operational infrastructure will remain essential to converting aircraft orders into capacity actually available to passengers.
Article published on July 20, 2026. The data presented are Boeing forecasts for the period 2026-2045 and may change in future editions of its reports.
Sources
- https://investors.boeing.com/investors/news/press-release-details/2026/Boeing-Forecasts-4-9-Trillion-Commercial-Aviation-Support-and-Services-Market-and-Demand-for-more-than-2-4-Million-New-Aviation-Personnel-Over-20-Years/default.aspx
- https://www.boeing.com/commercial/market/services-market-outlook
- https://www.boeing.com/commercial/market/pilot-technician-outlook
- https://www.boeing.com/commercial/market/commercial-market-outlook
- https://www.air-journal.fr/2026-07-19-un-marche-de-4-900-milliards-de-dollars-lavenir-radieux-des-services-aeronautiques-selon-boeing-5276365.html
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