Stricter entry requirements could prove costly for the United States. According to an analysis by the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) conducted with Oxford Economics, a plan to enhance data collection, including social media information, for travelers under the Visa Waiver Program (ESTA) could lead to a significant decrease in travel intent and major economic losses. In the WTTC's worst-case scenario, the impact could reach up to $15.7 billion in visitor spending and threaten up to 157,000 jobs.
Summary
A measure under consideration, which is already causing concern in the sector
The starting point is official: in December 2025, the US administration published in the Federal Register a proposal to change the information collection process related to entry into the country, including ESTA. Among the changes open for public comment is the idea of making it mandatory to declare social media identifiers for a period of up to five years, as well as other additional personal information. The document includes a public consultation period, with a deadline set for early February 2026.
In response, the US Travel Association publicly expressed its concerns and called for clarifications, mentioning a risk of discouraging travelers and questions about the actual effectiveness of these new requirements in relation to the objective of safety.
WTTC: A numerical alert on demand and employment
According to the trade press, the WTTC believes the deterrent effect could materialize quickly, particularly in high-contributing markets covered by the Visa Waiver Program. The organization cites a risk of a decline in arrivals from ESTA-eligible countries and highlights a key challenge for the industry: balancing increased controls with attractiveness.
The WTTC relies on a survey conducted in late 2025 and early 2026 among travelers from several eligible markets, as well as on economic impact modeling. One figure stands out: approximately one-third of travelers surveyed indicated they would be less inclined to travel to the United States if these changes were to take effect. In a context of heightened international competition, perception matters as much as the measure itself.
Why the “Trump Effect” is back in the conversation
This case brings to the forefront a reality well known to professionals: entry policies and perceived hospitality influence demand. The term “Trump effect” refers here to the idea of a signal sent to international visitors, which can be interpreted as more intrusive or less welcoming. It is not only the administrative burden that matters, but also the feeling of heightened control, particularly noticeable regarding personal data.
At this stage, it is not a rule already applied on a large scale, but a project under discussion. However, the impact can begin even before implementation: the announcement of stricter rules, relayed in the media, can be enough to change travel intentions, especially for long-haul bookings where planning is more of a commitment.
What tourism professionals need to watch out for
For travel agencies, tour operators, and MICE professionals, this isn't just a theoretical issue. If data collection becomes more complex or sensitive, it could lengthen trip preparation, create new reasons for cancellations before booking, and increase the need for customer support with formalities. The risk isn't just a drop in volume, but also an increase in friction, questions, and exceptional cases.
The immediate challenge is to adhere to the regulatory timeline, anticipate customer questions, and adapt communication accordingly, without causing unnecessary alarm. The trajectory of the legislation and the final version of the requirements will be crucial, particularly regarding the precise scope of what will be required, the monitoring procedures, and the actual implementation.
Sources
https://www.ustravel.org/press/us-travel-new-foreign-traveler-social-media-proposal
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